Flash hail prediction · Predictive Hail engine
Hail prediction up to 55 minutes before impact — not a report after it lands.
Hail-tracking tools tell you where hail fell. Predictive Hail forecasts the cell, the size class and the arrival window, refreshed every five minutes, so crews, fleets and adjusters act before the stones do.
Covered by Carrier Management and Automotive Fleet · no sensors required for the forecast
Hail size classes · to scale
Illustrative example · not live weather
Roof shingle · light marks
Car panel · dents
Glass · cracks
Prediction vs tracking
Hail tracking or hail prediction?
Hail tracking tools
Report after impact.
- Radar-derived swaths drawn after the storm passes, often hours later.
- Tell you where to send the claims team and the canvassers, after the damage exists.
- No size class ahead of time, no window to move a single vehicle.
Swath published3 h after impact
Flash hail prediction
Forecast before impact.
- Up to 55 minutes before hail reaches the site, refreshed every five minutes.
- The size class, the timing to the minute and the 1×1 km cell it will land on.
- Alerts by app, SMS, email, horn/strobe and API, so the crew moves before the stones fall.
Predictive Hail1.00 in DAMAGINGETA 14:32App · SMS · Horn
Size classes · what each alert means
Which size class triggers whom?
Thresholds follow the National Weather Service severe-hail definition; each Predictive Hail alert names its size class.
| Class | Typical damage | Who gets alerted |
|---|---|---|
| Severe | NWS severe threshold. Shingle bruising and granule loss, dented gutters, stripped foliage. | Roofing crews, agronomists covering crops |
| Damaging | Vehicle dents, roof claims, cracked skylights and greenhouse panels. | Fleet managers, claims adjusters, roofing sales |
| Destructive | Structural damage, broken glass, injuries to anyone caught outside. | Everyone on site, plus horn and strobe relays |
What lands on the ground
The alert names the size class before the first stone falls — up to 55 minutes ahead.
Use cases
Who moves first when the cell is forecast?
Showing who moves on 1.00 in DAMAGING hail
Alerted · 1.00 inRoofing
Before the storm, not after
Their move
- Know which neighborhoods before the storm, not from the claims map after it.
- Stage crews and canvassers where the 1×1 km cells will land.
Predictive Hail · 1.00 in · ETA 14:32 · App
Hail alerts for roofing
Alerted · 1.00 inAuto & fleet
Stage the lot, not the dents
Their move
- The lot gets its window, up to 55 minutes out.
- Stage vehicles under cover inside it.
- No dents to file afterwards.
Predictive Hail · 1.00 in · ETA 14:32 · SMS
Covered by Automotive Fleet.
Press & partners
Alerted · 1.00 inInsurance & claims
Adjusters before the FNOL
Their move
- See the size class and the cell before the first notice of loss.
- Pre-position adjusters where it will land.
Predictive Hail · 1.00 in · ETA 14:32 · Email
Covered by Carrier Management.
Press & partners
Agriculture
Cover and harvest calls
Their move
- Time crop cover to the hail window.
- Make the harvest call before the cell arrives.
- Read it next to the frost, ET and disease forecasts of the Agronomy Suite.
Predictive Hail · 0.75 in · ETA 14:32 · App
Hail alerts for agriculture
As covered in the trade press
What did the trade press say at launch?
The trade press covered the Predictive Hail launch. All four pieces, and the rest of Flash's coverage, live on the press page.
All coverage- (opens in a new tab)
Carrier Management
Coverage of the Predictive Hail launch for carriers and claims teams: hail predicted up to 55 minutes ahead, by size class, so adjusters can be staged before the first notice of loss.
Carriers and claims teamsRead the coverage in Carrier Management (opens in a new tab)
- (opens in a new tab)
Automotive Fleet
Coverage of the Predictive Hail launch for fleet operators: a forecast window to move vehicles under cover before hail reaches the lot, with no sensors required for the forecast.
Fleet operatorsRead the coverage in Automotive Fleet (opens in a new tab)
- (opens in a new tab)
Insurance Innovation Reporter
The earliest write-up of the launch: hail size and arrival time predicted at 1×1 km, up to 55 minutes ahead, refreshed every five minutes, with Flash's lead meteorologist on a month of beta.
Carriers and insurtechRead the coverage in Insurance Innovation Reporter (opens in a new tab)
- (opens in a new tab)
Roofing Contractor
Coverage of the hail forecast tool for roofing contractors: the cell, the size class and the arrival window, so crews come off the roof before the cell and canvass the streets that were hit.
Roofing contractorsRead the coverage in Roofing Contractor (opens in a new tab)
Specifications · Predictive Hail
What exactly does Predictive Hail deliver?
- Lead time
- Up to 55 min
- before hail reaches the site
- Refresh
- Every 5 min
- Predictive Hail model cycle
- Resolution
- 1×1 km
- the cell the stones will land on
- Swath
- 1 hour
- hail swath prediction, timing to the minute
- Channels
- App · SMS · email
- plus horn/strobe relays, the API and Skye
- Hardware
- None
- software only
- Coverage
- CONUS
- the continental U.S.
- Engine
- Predictive Hail
- runs beside FirstStrike, the lightning engine
Agentic
Skye
Flash provides the harness: the prediction engine, your sites and your data, connected to the tools you already run. Ask in plain language; get an answer or an action.
SkyeAsk Flash · Skye · Illustrative example · not live weather
Ask where the hail will be, and where it was.
Skye, Flash Weather's AI weather agent, reads the same Predictive Hail cells and the same five-minute run as this page, then answers or acts in the tools you already run. A person confirms before anything changes; every action is logged.
How Skye worksRoofing owner · Alpharetta
“Which streets took hail over one inch last night?”
14 streets in Alpharetta, 1.00–1.50 in. Canvass list pushed to HubSpot.
Streets over 1.00 in
- Webb Bridge Rd1.25 in
- Kimball Bridge Rd1.25 in
- Haynes Bridge Rd1.25 in
- Old Milton Pkwy1.00 in
- Canton St1.50 in
- + 9 more · 14 streets
- Source · Predictive Hail cells · 21:40 run
- Action · HubSpot: canvass list created
Fleet manager · 3 lots
“Which lots are inside the hail window before 6 pm?”
Two: Sandy Springs and Roswell, 1.00 in class from 4:50 pm. Move-under-cover work orders created in NetSuite; lot leads texted.
Sandy SpringsETA 16:50RoswellETA 17:15NorcrossClear- SMS · 2 lot leads
- Source · cells 2731, 2760 · 16:25 run
- Action · NetSuite: 2 work orders
FAQ
What do roofers and fleet managers ask first?
The questions that come up before a hail demo, answered with the numbers from the spec grid above.
Up to 55 minutes before hail reaches a site, refreshed every five minutes, with the size to the hundredth of an inch, its class and the 1×1 km cell it will land on.
No. Tracking tools report where hail fell, from radar, after the fact. Predictive Hail is a forecast: the report arrives before the impact, in time to move vehicles and stage crews.
Severe (the NWS threshold), damaging and destructive. Size is predicted to the hundredth of an inch and each alert names the class, so a fleet manager and a roofer can act on different thresholds from the same forecast.
Not yet. The up to 99.6% figure is lightning only, scored by its own method. Predictive Hail is verified separately, and verification examples are available on request.
No. Predictive Hail is software only, delivered by app, SMS, email, horn/strobe relays and the API, and it runs beside your lightning alerts in the same Weather Command Center.